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Administration & Management

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Category Archives: Agribusiness Management

Bank on Government’s Social Agenda

It has always been nice to hear the Central Banker of the country talking and favouring financial inclusion despite of tremendous pressure in favour of financial consolidation. Though, this does not down size the importance of Financial Consolidation, looking into type of competition the banks or rather banking sector in locked into.  The prospective change in policy, when it comes to granting license to Banks to operate, towards asking them to commit themselves to Governments’ social agenda of Financial Inclusion is again an august step.

 

Four decades succeeding the bank nationalization, have just succeeded in provide access to banking services to barely 30,000 out of 6 Lakh habitations. This clearly means the huge task that banks still have to complete. Looking into achievements of banks one may infer as if the banks were just paying lip service to governments agenda of financial inclusion.

 

Central Bank, should perhaps consider asking new bankers to have their headquarters located in one of 570000 habitations, which are still facing financial exclusion. As this will automatically initiate what is called as seepage economy at those places and in process will gradually attract more bankers and other stakeholders in the development process there.

 

Due credit goes to the backing given by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the Central Banker of the country, which forced even union finance ministry to a bit down on its focus towards financial consolidation. Though finance ministry, still wants to stick to financial consolidation, as Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee could not abstain himself from containing in Financial Bill 2011-12 presented by him in the Parliament on February 28, 2011.

Always Yours–As Usual—Saurabh Singh

Salient Features of Indian Union Budget 2011 – 2012

  1. IncomeTax exemption limit raised to Rs. 1.80 lakh from Rs. 1.60 lakh .
  2. Exemption for senior citizens raised to Rs. 2.5 lakh.
  3. Tax under women slab unchanged.
  4. Tax exemption raised to Rs. 5 lakh for senior citizens of 80 years.
  5. To increase service tax on air travel.
  6. Excise and customs duty proposals to result in the net gain of Rs. 7,300 crore.
  7. Export duty rates on iron ore unified and kept at 20% ad valorem.
  8. Basic customs duty on agricultural machinery reduced to 4.5% from 5%.
  9. Basic customs duty on raw silk reduced from 30 to 5 per cent.
  10. Excise and customs duty proposals to result in the net gain of Rs. 7,300 crore.
  11. Nominal one per cent central excise duty on 130 items entering the tax net. Basic food and fuel and precious stones, gold and silver jewellery will be exempted.
  12. Peak rate of customs duty maintained at 10% in view of the global economic situation.
  13. Customs duty exemptions for hybrid auto parts.
  14. Nominal one per cent central excise duty on 130 items entering the tax net. Basic food and fuel and precious stones, gold and silver jewellery will be exempted.
  15. Standard rate of central exercise duty maintained at 10%.
  16. Central government debt in proportion to GDP will be 44.2% in 2011-12.
  17. 20% export duty on all grades of iron ore.
  18. Basic customs duty reduced on certain textile products
  19. No change in service tax rate of 10%.
  20. No change in central excise duty.
  21. Plan to levy 1% on 130 consumer items.
  22. Revenue deficit fixed at 2.3 per cent in revised estimates of 2010—11 and 1.8 per cent in 2011—12.
  23. Total plan expenditure will go up 100 per cent in nominal terms in the next year.
  24. 15% tax on dividend for Indian cos from foreign unit.
  25. Direct Tax proposals result in expenditure of Rs. 11,500 cr.
  26. To reduce surcharge on domestic companies to 5% from 7.5%
  27. MAT rate hiked to 18.5% from 18%.
  28. MAT on developers in SEZs to be levied.
  29. Fiscal deficit revised to 5.1% from 5.5% for FY’11.
  30. Total expenditure raised by 13.4% at Rs. 12.57 lakh cr over budget estimates.
  31. Gross tax receipts estimated at 9.32 lakh cr for FY 2011-12.
  32. Bill to amend India Stamp Act soon.
  33. Budget allocation of Rs. 100 cr for Ladakh and Rs. 150 cr for Jammu for implementation of projects identified by taskforce.
  34. Old age pension to persons of over the age of 80 raised from Rs. 200 to Rs. 500
  35. Health allocation up by 20% to R 27,600 cr.
  36. Rs. 9- lakh ex-gratia for defence personnel for 100% disability fighting Left-wing extremism.
  37. To set up 15 more mega food parks.
  38. Remuneration of anganwadi workers raised from Rs. 1,500 to Rs. 3,000 per month, Helpers to get Rs. 1,500 from Rs. 750.
  39. Tax free bonds of Rs. 30,000 cr to be issued for infrastructure development. This will cover Warehousing Corporation, NHAI, IRFC and Hudco.
  40. Allocation under Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana to be raised from Rs. 6,755 crore in the current year to Rs. 7,860 crore.
  41. Rs. 50 cr grant to Aligarh Muslim University centres in Murshidabad in West Bengal and Malappuram in Kerala.
  42. Rs. 200 cr for environmental remediation programme.
  43. Age for pension eligibility reduced from 65 years to 60 years under Indira Gandhi Yojana scheme.
  44. To move insurance, pension and banking bills in Parliament.
  45. Rs. 500-cr for National Development Fund.
  46. Rs. 400-cr as one-time grant for IIT-Kharagpur.
  47. Move to set up State Innovation Councils underway.
  48. Allocation to education sector raised to Rs. 52,000 cr.
  49. Scholarship scheme for SC/ST students in classes iX, X.
  50. Increase in allocation to higher education.
  51. Plan 17% increase in social sector spending.
  52. To introduce Food Security Bill.
  53. Tax free bonds of Rs. 30,000 cr to be issued for infrastructure development. This will cover Warehousing Corporation, NHAI, IRFC and Hudco.
  54. Fertiliser industry to be included under infrastructure category.
  55. New companies bill to be introduced.
  56. GoM to be set up to deal with corruption.
  57. Five-fold strategy to deal with black money.
  58. Mega cluster for leather products to be introduced.
  59. Existing interest subvention scheme on short term farm loans at 7 % interest to continue.
  60. Self-assessment in customs to be introduced.
  61. Credit flows to farmers raised from Rs. 3.75 lakh crore to Rs. 4.75 lakh crore.
  62. Constitution Amendment Bill for introduction of GST in this session.
  63. Goods and Services Tax Bill this year.
  64. Direct Taxes Code Bill likely to be passed by Parliament next financial year after getting Standing Committee report.
  65. Public Debt Management Agency Bill in the next fiscal.
  66. Indian mutual funds to get direct access to foreign markets; FIIs to be allowed to invest in MFs.
  67. To liberalise FDI policy further.
  68. To extend infra tax breaks to fertiliser sector.
  69. To set up microfinance equity fund.
  70. Government to move towards direct cash transfer of cash subsidy as regards kerosene, LPG and fertilisers from March 2012 for BPL in view of large diversion.
  71. 3% interest subvention to farmers who repay in time.
  72. Nabard capital base to be increased by infusing Rs. 10,000 cr.
  73. Rural housing fund increased to Rs. 3,000 cr.
  74. Banks asked to step up lending to agriculture.
  75. Allocation under Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana to be raised from Rs. 6,755 crore in the current year to Rs. 7,860 crore.
  76. Budget proposes to raise housing loan limit from Rs. 20 lakh to Rs. 25 lakh for priority sector lending.
  77. Allocation for farm development hiked to Rs. 7,860 cr.
  78. Rs. 300 cr proposed to promote production of cereals.
  79. Indian micro-finance equity with SIDBI to be formed at Rs. 100 crore.
  80. Rs. 6,000 cr to be given to public sector banks to maintain capital-to-risk assets ratio norms.
  81. RBI to bring in new guidelines for banking licences.
  82. Aiming Fiscal deficit of 3% by fiscal 2014.
  83. Central electronic registry to reduce fraud cases.
  84. FII investment limit for infra corporate bonds hiked to $40 billion.
  85. Discussions on to further liberalise FDI policy.
  86. Preparation of GST rollout in final stages.
  87. Microfinance equity fund of Rs. 100 cr proposed.
  88. Govt committed to hold 51% in PSUs.
  89. Rs. 3,000 cr to Nabard for handloom societies.
  90. Women self-help group development fund to be set up.
  91. Direct transfer of subsidy for kerosene.
  92. Goods and Services Tax Bill to be introduced in Parliament this year.
  93. Direct Tax Code Bill likely to be passed by Parliament next financial year after getting Standing Committee report.
  94. Disinvestment target at Rs. 40,000 cr.
  95. Direct Tax Code from April 2012.
  96. SEBI-registered MFs to be allowed direct access to foreign funds.
  97. Expect RBI to moderate inflation.
  98. Public Debt Management Agency Bill to be introduced next financial year.
  99. Current account deficit and average inflation in 2011-12 likely to be less than current year.
  100. FDI policy review done in Sept 2010.
  101. Economic growth in 2011-12 likely to be 9 per cent.
  102. Admits large-scale diversion of kerosene.
  103. Introduction of DTC will be a watershed moment.
  104. Debt managment bill to be introduced.
  105. Constitutional Amendment Bill on GST to be introduced.
  106. Expect agri sector to grow at 5.4% in 2011.
  107. Growth in 2010-11 broad-based.
  108. Economy resilient to shocks.
  109. RBI measures will further moderate inflation.
  110. GDP estimated growth at 8.6% in real terms.
  111. New dynamism in rural economy.
  112. Core inflation in check.
  113. Current account deficit is at 2009-10 levels, and is a matter of concern.
  114. Huge difference in wholesale and retail prices not acceptable.
  115. Total food inflation down from 20.2 per cent last year to 9.3 per cent in Jan
  116. Revival in private investment should be sustainable.
  117. Service growing in double digits.
  118. Need to reconcile legitimate environmental concerns with developmental needs.
  119. Food Inflation has declined by half, but still a matter of concern.

 

 

 

 

Always Yours — As Usual–Saurabh Singh

Wishing One & All Happy Celebrations at Start of Harvest Season: Call it by Any Name

Wishing One & All Happy Celebrations at Start of Harvest Season: Call it by Any Name : Lohri or Pongal

 

Lohri & Pongal Celebrations

 

SEASON OF ONION POLITICS IS IN: MIDDLE CLASS BE AWARE: CAVEAT ISSUED

UPA FACES MOUNTING CRITICISM ON ONION PRICES

Faced with mounting criticism over sky—high onion prices, the government on Thursday asserted the situation will improve “very quickly” thanks to steps taken to increase availability, including transportation of stocks to markets where the commodity is in short supply.

“I think it will ease very quickly. We had a Committee of Secretaries meeting, so we have decided to move onions from different areas… We will certainly do whatever required bringing down the prices of onions,” Cabinet Secretary K.M. Chandrasekhar told reporters here. He said the Railways has agreed to provide the rakes required to move onion stocks from different parts of the country to retail markets worst affected by the supply shortfall.

Onion prices have skyrocketed in recent days, as crops in the main producing state of Maharashtra have been damaged due to unseasonal rains.

“I understand there is a shortfall in Maharashtra, but Karnataka is reasonably good and Gujarat is producing quite a lot of onions. We will try to make some more movements,” Mr. Chandrasekhar said.

He added that the Commerce Ministry is also scouting for overseas sources to import onions.

With a view to bring down onion prices, which had raced to as much as Rs 85 per kg in some retail markets, the government had on Tuesday night removed customs and countervailing duties on onions. The commodity earlier attracted 5 per cent customs duty and 4 per cent countervailing duty. Furthermore, the government announced an indefinite ban on exports of onions. In addition, consignments of onions have been making their way into the country from neighboring Pakistan at rates almost four times less than the peak rate seen in retail markets like Delhi.

Consequently, wholesale prices of onions have begun to fall rapidly and the effect is also beginning to show in the retail market. Wholesale onion prices rose by 4.56 per cent during the week ended December 11.

PRIME MINISTER ASKS MINISTRIES TO BRING DOWN ONION PRICES

Union government has refused to play Santa Claus and regulate market forces, the merciless rise in onion prices threatens to mar Christmas, New Year and Makar Sankrantri festivities.

Several markets reporting a further rise in prices to about Rs.85 a kg,  has made Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to interven, by directing the Ministries of Agriculture and Consumer Affairs to take steps to bring its prices to affordable levels.

According to sources, the Prime Minister, in his letter, wanted the two Ministries to monitor the situation on a day-to-day basis to bring the prices of onions down. However, the fact was that the common man would not get to sport a smile for at least three more weeks. This was underlined by Union Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar who declared that the prices of onions would continue to scorch the kitchens as of now.

He ruled out any intervention through imports and expressed his dependence on the next batch of arrivals of onions, which continued to command a stiff price of Rs.70 plus a kg, without any let-up in retail markets of Delhi and other cities. The Agriculture Minister said that onion prices would remain high for at least the next two to three weeks. He attributed the rise in prices of onions to unseasonal rains in Nasik in Maharashtra damaging onions on a major scale, and said that the prices would come down when the bulbs arrive from Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh in the next two to three weeks. He, however, hoped that the government’s action of suspending exports till January 15 and doubling export price would help reduce the prices of onion.

FINANCE MINISTERY DESCRIBED RISE IN ONION PRICES AS UNFORTUNATE

Union Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee described the rise in onion prices as unfortunate and said that he would be talking to ministries concerned to ensure adequate supply of onions in the market. Stressing on the mismatch in demand and supply, Mr. Mukherjee hoped that appropriate steps would be taken to remove the bottlenecks to bring the prices down.

The Union Agriculture Ministry claimed that wholesale prices of onions in Nasik in Maharashtra and Azadpur market declined by 35 per cent and 13 percent respectively on Tuesday, following the decision of the Price Fixation Advisory Committee to voluntarily suspend issuance of no-objection certificates for export of onion.

Communist Party of India MP Gurudas Dasgupta said that the rise in prices of essential food items and that of onion was due to excessive liberalization of the market without any required safeguard, excessive export, forward trading and stockpiling, with generous bank advances and hoarding by unscrupulous manipulators of the market.

OPPOSITION GETS MORE AMMUNITION SUPPLY TO FIRE AT GOVERNMENT

The skyrocketing onion prices have provided more ammunition to critics of the government in the Opposition, who were already protesting the decision not to constitute a Joint Parliamentary Committee to probe the 2G telecom scam. As Onion prices skyrocket across the country, the Opposition BJP and the Left closed ranks to slam the UPA government accusing it of remaining a “mute spectator” while the ruling alliance’s key ally Trinamool Congress also showed signs of discomfort.

The opposition parties also accused the Government of surrendering before market forces for the extraordinary increase in prices of the bulb. With the price of onions — which is perhaps the most essential ingredient for any Indian food — a matter of extreme political sensitivity, state governments vowed to take stern action against those involved in hoarding and black-marketing of onions.

“As the prices go higher and higher, the government stands as a mute spectator, reflecting its helplessness before the market forces. The government has totally surrendered before the market forces,” CPI leader D Raja said. “It (Government) is making excuses that hoarding is the reason for the high prices of onions. If that is true, then it should have taken action,” he said.

BJP president Nitin Gadkari faulted the “wrong” economic policies and “bad governance” of Congress party and the UPA for the sudden surge in onion prices which has nearly doubled to touch Rs 80 per kg in the last few days in several parts of the country. Mr. Gadkari accused the government of being a failure in taking timely steps to check onion prices.

With Assembly elections in West Bengal due next year, Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool apparently does not want surging prices of the bulb to be an issue. “We have always been against price rise be it for petrol or anything… We are against it (rise in onion prices),” TMC MP Partha Chatterjee said.

IMPORTED ONIONS ARRIVE FROM PAKISTAN THROUGH THE ATTARI-WAGAH LAND ROUTE

Soaring prices of onion in the country witnessed truckloads of the commodity arriving from Pakistan through the Attari-Wagah land route for supply to northern markets in India on Monday. As many as 13 truck loads (5 to 15 tons per truck) of onion have arrived from Pakistan, a senior official of Customs Department in Amritsar told PTI without quantifying the total import consignment.

“About five (Indian) importers have brought in onion from Lahore today for supply in the markets of Ludhiana,Amritsar, Jalandhar in Punjab and Delhi,” the official said. The landed cost of onion from Pakistan stood at Rs. 18-20 per kg, he said adding this included custom duty, cess, transportation and handling charges.

According to importers, it was for the first time in this year, onions are being imported from Pakistan. “We, this year exported onion to Pakistan in the month of March and April. Now we are importing it from them (Pakistan),” Rajdeep Uppal, the MD of a leading Amritsar trading company Narain Exim said.

Mr. Uppal said, as far as his company is concerned, it imported 100 Metric Tonne (MT) of onion today at a rate of USD400 per MT.  He said it would import 500 MT of onion in coming days from Sindh provision in Pakistan.  India and Pakistan agreed to commence truck movement from Attari Check post in Oct. 2007, after a gap of sixty years to boost bilateral trade.

Vegetable traders imported onion at USD 400 a tonne (around Rs 18,000 a tonne) from Sindh provision in Pakistan. “The size of crop in Pakistan is also not very huge… therefore rising demand from India has pushed up the rates, which will result in higher payment for imported onion,” he said. After the arrival of 13 truck loads (9 Tonne) of onion at Amritsar via Attari-Wagah land route, 38 trucks carrying fresh consignment of onion today entered Indian Territory at Amritsar, official of the Custom Department at Amritsar said. According to traders, close to 450 tonnes of onion has arrived from Pakistan within a day or two. The landed cost of onion from Pakistan was Rs 18-20 per kg including custom duty, cess, transportation and handling charges, he said. Though arrival of onion from Pakistan could not rein in commodity prices in local markets of Amritsar, yet the onion from Lahore commanded lesser rates compared with Indian onion.

“Onion from Pakistan was being sold at Rs 36-37 per kg in wholesale market while Indian onion was fetching Rs 45-50 per kg in wholesale market,” said Kailash, a vegetable merchant in Amritsar. Majority of commodity supply came from Pakistan was consumed in local market of Amritsar, traders said. “The quality of imported onion (from Pakistan) was inferior to Indian onion, resulting into getting less prices,” he said. Pakistani traders are exporting onions to India despite a drop in domestic production due to unprecedented floods and a surge in prices in markets across the country, traders said today. Prices of onions have maintained high levels due to crops being affected by the floods, especially in the southern Sindh province, where agricultural lands were devastated by heavy rains and swollen rivers during July-August this year. The exports began earlier this week after the price of onions registered a sharp rise in India.

About 100 trucks carrying thousands of tonnes of onions have been sent through the Wagah land border in Punjab and Khalil Bhatti, a leading exporter in Lahore, said exports to India are likely to continue till January 15.There is no specific agreement with Indian importers on the quantity of onions to be supplied by Pakistan and exporters in Lahore were filling orders as and when they are received from importers. “About 400 to 500 tonnes of onions are being sent across the border daily from Wagah at the rate of between Rs44 and Rs48 a kilogramme,”.

Due to the floods, onion production in Sindh alone registered a decline of 500,000 to 600,000 tonnes this season, traders at Karachi’s main vegetable market said. The southern province caters for most of Pakistan’s requirement of onions during the winter. Pakistan’s annual onion yield is estimated at five to six million tonnes.

Since exports to India began, onion prices in Pakistan’s retail markets surged from Rs60 a kg to Rs70 a kg. However, this is almost half the current price of onions in India. Exporters have also been buoyed by the Indian government’s decision to abolish a seven per cent custom duty on onion imports to provide relief to people hit hard by a steep rise in the price of onions.

This is the first time in a decade that India has imported onions from Pakistan and Pakistani exporters are hopeful of making good financial gains. Ironically, the Pakistan government was forced to allow the import of vegetables, including onions, from India earlier this year after the floods caused by unusually heavy monsoon rains devastated thousands of acres of agricultural land.

SUSPENSION OF ONION EXPORTS TILL JANUARY 15

The government announced suspension of onion exports till January 15 in a last-minute effort to cool prices of the poor man’s essential vegetable from the prevailing high of Rs. 60-70 a kg. In a twin strategy, while the farm cooperative major and regulating agency NAFED (National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation) and 12 other agencies have been directed to halt issuance of export clearance, the MEP (minimum export price) for onions has also been raised more than double from $ 525 a tonne to $1,200 with immediate effect.

As a result, even those onion exporters who have already secured NOCs (no objection certificates) from the regulating agencies but have not executed their export orders will not be able to do so below the increased price. “We have decided to voluntarily suspend issuing NOC to onion exporters till January 15 and have also raised the MEP to US$ 1,200 per tonne for those NOCs which are yet to be executed,” a NAFED official said after the decision to suspend exports was taken at an emergency meeting here. Within a couple of days, retail price of onions soared to Rs. 60-70 a kg across the country from an existing high of Rs. 35-40 a kg. While wholesalers have been attributing the earlier high prices to supply constraints owing to unseasonal rains in Maharashtra (especially Latur where the crop was impacted), Gujarat and southern States, the sudden surge in prices is owing to a sharp increase in exports, apart from various stakeholders holding back the produce from entering the market.

AGRICULTURE CO-OPERATIVE NAFED DEFERS ONION IMPORTS FROM PAKISTAN

Agriculture co-operative NAFED has said that it has deferred onion imports from Pakistan as the domestic prices have started softening. “NAFED defers plan to import onion as its prices have begun to soften in the domestic market,” NAFED chairman Bijender Singh told reporters in New Delhi. NAFED is the regulator for onion exports from the country.

NHRDF CONCERNED ON HIGH PRODUCTION COST

This is evident from the fact that way back in May this year, Nasik-based National Horticulture Research and Development Foundation (NHRDF) Additional Director Satish Bhonde had gone on record saying that although the country’s onion production this year was likely to touch a record 95 lakh tonnes, it may not result in a sharp fall in prices due to high investment costs involved.

In a clear indication that high yield would not mean lower prices, Mr. Bhonde had said: “Use of crop technology and irrigation have improved onion yields, though acreage remained at last year’s level of 5.5 lakh hectare…The wholesale prices of onions are unlikely to fall significantly because farmers are storing the crop in a big way. Also, higher production cost may not allow them to sell at lower rates.” According to NHRDF data, wholesale price in late May for onions were at Rs. 6-7 a kg at Lasalgaon in Maharashtra, Asia’s biggest onion market.

Onions have soared despite of the fact that India has three seasons for onion — kharif (winter), late kharif and rabi (summer).


 

Always Yours—As Usual—-Saurabh Singh

A Short Case for Domain of Knowledge Administration Governance & HR Issues in Public Funded Academic Orgs Human Resource, Capacity Building and Ethics being practiced in Public Funded Academic Organizations

An Institution Blessed with All Possible Powers by Destiny – for – Humble Objective of turning Society in to a Value Based, Principled, Ethical besides Providing Knowledge and Skills to Them for Sustaining their Life and be a Law Abiding Citizens.

THE CREATION CALLED HUMAN IS ALWAYS CAPABLE OF PLAYING THE DEVILS ROLE

CASE: Human Resource, Capacity Building and Ethics being Practiced in Public Funded Academic Organizations of Repute : Perhaps Grooming place of Corrupt and Un Ethical Acts: None other Institution alone can Exercise the  vast amount of  Energy required to turn, whole of Working Population, of Any Nation in totality and all alone, on Unrighteous Path.

An individual faculty member of an esteemed academic institution has come to know by discovering some relevant information that a lot of unwanted activities are being executed in the institution she/he serves, and in process she/he was also made to suffer in manner significantly damaging the career of individual. If the same information is disclosed to executives, media or public, the situation may turn more damaging to the individual faculty member itself. The same may happen due to possibility that may be resultant of concerned individuals with the issue may deliberately force the administration by providing it with maligned or forged information, which may make administration believe and consequently  take it as a case of deliberate attempt to malign the image of the Institution. Certainly the act may manifest in causing some dent to image of Institution, but if the problem resolved, will save the institution from a certain death in near future, as the same concerns the important and vital component of the end product delivered by the organization. The success of the organization in future will be ensured by the same and that too, in an accelerated manner, due turning capable of delivering quality education and skill development, as per expectations of society. Till date the same faculty member has silently brought the same to the notice of concerned authorities but they have tuned deaf. Despite of having been asked by a prudent top executive of the Institution to clearly put the issue, so that same is resolved, the faculty member concerned has never initiated the issue, thinking that any transition may result in sufferings of its most vital stakeholders who happen to be the students. Thus, even without any application of external force (certainly the internal threats keep continuously being issued to cause a nervous breakdown) such act is being voluntarily adopted by her/him with a good intension of letting the organization achieve its task, even if it means, some material suffering to her/him in form of low wages getting paid to her/ him. The people, who happen to be in executive duty, despite of being aware, are not trying to correct the situation by themselves. If the same gets initiated by executives themselves, then the situation can be improved in an efficient manner and that too without creating any explosive or damaging situation. The situation is that nobody is attempting to act on the issue and is giving an impression to top executives of the Institution as everything very normal, maintained and routine.

1. Assuming that you happen to be the individual concerned, comment on situation as initiatives that you would like to initiate to control such issue.

2. Assuming that you happen to be the concerned executive, comment on situation as initiatives that you would like to initiate to control such issue.

Always Yours — As Usual — Saurabh Singh

With Science and Beyond Science

IN GUJARAT, E-LITERATE PAANWALA GOOGLES NREGS, STUMBLES ON RS 1-CRORE SCAM

IN GUJARAT, E-LITERATE PAANWALA GOOGLES NREGS, STUMBLES ON RS 1-CRORE SCAM

A newly e-literate village paanwala’s obsession with Google has blown the lid off a unique NREGS scam in Porbandar. The motley bunch of beneficiaries include affluent NRIs, doctors, government officials, teachers and well-off farmers — all shown as unemployed village labourers holding NREGS job cards. So far, the money siphoned off comes to nearly Rs 1 crore.

On paper, there are 963 NREGS job cardholders at Kotda village in Kutiyana taluka of Porbandar district. Records show they have been paid over Rs 95 lakh for their ‘labour’ over the past three years. In reality though, none of them have ever dug wells or built roads in their lives or actually received any money for the same under NREGS or otherwise.

The scam came to light after Aslam Khokhar (37), a Class X dropout and a paan shop owner in Kutiyana learnt how to use computers and searched NREGS on Google. “I was thrilled to find every detail of NREGS work in our area on the website. But I then came across the job card of a friend, who is a government employee.

IN GUJARAT, E-LITERATE PAANWALA GOOGLES NREGS, STUMBLES ON RS 1-CRORE SCAM

I searched and found there are doctors, teachers and NRIs I personally know in the village, listed as ‘labourers’ on the site,” said Khokar.

Veja Modedara, an independent councillor at Kutiyana taluka panchayat, and Congress worker like Bhanukant Odedara soon joined hands with Khokhar. The trio conducted door-to-door meetings with villagers named in the website and found they had neither worked on any NREGS site nor received any wages.

Several like Bharat Ganga (23), who has been to Muscat for the past three years, were shocked to learn that they were named as NREGS employees on record and have been even paid for their work. “How can this be? I moved out of India three years ago,” Ganga told The Indian Express.

Varu Karsan Uka (38), an official with the Pashcim Gujarat Vij Company Limited for 15 years also holds the job card number GJ-21-005-030-001/726. Even his wife has been also named as a card holding labourer. According to the records, the couple had built roads and dug wells for 60 days and received Rs 6,000 for their work. “How can I possibly get an NREGS job card when I am a state government official ?” said Uka.

Dr Dayaram Babhania (58), a well-known physician in Kutiyana too holds a job card (number GJ-21-005-030-001/526), though he admits never to have lifted a pickaxe in his entire life.

Other like him on the list are Range Forest Officer Jesa Odedara, Forest Guard Arshi Bhattu, Gujarat State Road Transport Corporation (GSRTC) employees Meru Odedara and Arjan Odedara, teacher Leela Dasa, Ex-serviceman Kunti Rama and NRIs Haja Modha, who have long left the village and settled in Israel. On paper, all are ‘labourers’ and many have been paid too.

Kutiyana Sub-Inspector I Damor said the police probe will take a while since details of all the 963 accounts need to be verified.

Kutiyana Taluka Development Officer J Gamit said, “Preliminary investigation by the department has revealed that at least 73 cardholders are government employees, professionals or NRIs.”

District Development Officer K D Bhatt said: “We will begin a door-to-door survey to find the exact scale of the scam.”

Always Yours ————–  As Usual——————  Saurabh Singh

Source: http://in.news.yahoo.com/48/20101115/804/tnl-in-gujarat-e-literate-paanwala-googl.html?printer=1:::: Hiral DaveMon, Nov 15 06:09 AM

AHEAD FROM PREVIOUS POST [Bank of Japan back in stimulus mode……]

…………….AHEAD FROM PREVIOUS POST

[i.e., Bank of Japan in Stimulus Mode]

The case of Bank of Japan and that of the Federal Reserves at USA turns to be a clear example of  two events, i.e, First being What is Meaning of Zero Interest Rate Regime and Second it demonstrates a great wide valley of interest rate deferential being created among Developed Economies on one side and Emerging Nations Economies on other side. The same was very much visible in the recently concluded IMF Meet of Finance Ministers and Central Banker of these two clear groups.

The two self styled protagonists to name United States of America for Developed Economies and the other one being China for Emerging Economy Nations, could not reach any point of consensus to overcome currency war spread across the Globe. In the ensuing blame game, on one hand USA was requesting IMF-World Bank to make and keep a through visible on currency valuation and exchange rate in China; China spread its worry and held United States of America responsible for destablinsing the economies of the nations grouped as emerging economies. China claimed that it was not only the alone case of what USA managed in Brazil, but China and India too are not being spared.

Few of nations coming under Emerging Economies out of a list of Twenty Eight now are taking the measures to start putting a tax regime on certain kind of cash inflows as well as inflows above a certain volume too. If all the emerging nations are going to be forced to adopt such measures, then very fabric of Global Markets and Globalization as process will become extinct soon and defeat the objectives of the agreements already signed in this direction. But then, this is a situation as on date, which has a very small but sure probability of  shaping out, given the behavior and turn being witnessed in the fiscal as well as monetary policies of Developed Economies.

In an effort to conclude the write up so as it could be gone through easily the is being turned to Indian Markets. Indian Markets may get saved from the damage that huge amount of Cash Inflows are capable of causing. But till the task is not over, the torchbearers at Indian Economic Infrastructure, may not afford a sound sleep.

As per the expectations and sentiments in Indian Economy at present, launch of a large number of IPOs is being expected and awaited. These IPOs may provide a cushion by working as antidotes against huge cash inflows, that may result due to the reasons of a Huge Interest Rate differential.

Its not all over, and will or may continue for longer time with or without time interval, but at the moment I would love to say—————————————————

Always Yours ————— As Usual ———————-Saurabh Singh

 

 

 

Finance in History – A compilation by Saurabh — Part II

Finance in History: Labor Days

The Lowell Mills offer a lesson in the perils of focusing on labor costs at the expense of technology.

The building of Samuel Slater’s mill in Pawtucket, Rhode Island in 1793 marked a genuine paradigm shift: the transition of cloth-making from the home to the factory. A decade or so later, wealthy Bostonian Francis Cabot Lowell followed Slater’s example by surreptitiously copying English spinning and weaving technology. After visiting the cotton mills of Manchester, England and taking copious mental notes, he returned to Boston and raised $400,000 from wealthy friends and family to recreate what he had seen in Great Britain.

Thus began the American Industrial Revolution, and with it, another sort of shift. The new cloth-making business put both capital and labor to work on a scale that demanded not just new machines, but new management. Unfortunately, the accounting and financial technology of the day wasn’t up to the task. Financial managers of the time focused on the familiar — costs of labor and materials — but oddly enough, often ignored the potential challenges of maintenance, obsolescence and technological change that came with their new machines. Without a good understanding of the importance of depreciation and reserves, writes one historian, “The known expense of labor received more attention than the largely unknown problems of capital expense.”

Initially, however, a management focus on labor seemed a happy development. An idealist, Lowell did his utmost to improve upon the grim working conditions he had witnessed in England, where, in the early 1800s, English laborers had no minimum wage and generally worked twelve to fourteen hours a day, six days a week.

Lowell set about creating a worker’s utopia. He recruited girls and women, ages 15 to 35, from surrounding farming communities and promised their understandably wary families that they would live in chaperoned boardinghouses and have access to a church, a library, and healthy social activities. They would receive weekly wages, an unheard-of luxury for a farm girl, even if she did have to work six 10- to 12-hour days (almost as long as her English counterparts) to earn it.

Lowell’s five-story factories were a brilliant early construct of vertical manufacturing. Each mill had machines to clean the raw cotton, turn it into yarn and thread, weave it into cloth, and then print the finished cloth with colorful designs. The U.S. Congress helped matters considerably by imposing prohibitive tariffs on imported cloth, protecting the Massachusetts producers from their British competition.

If the water wheels powered these mills along the Merrimack, treasurers ran them. Sitting at the top of the largest early American companies, treasurers (not presidents) held shares in their organizations and conveyed the wishes of the shareholders in Boston to the agents who managed the mills in Lowell. Although flawed, the structure made sense. For agents, labor costs were paramount, while shareholders worried most about the cost of raw cotton and the price of cloth — the most important U.S. export of the early 19th century. Detailed accounting information provided essential communication between managers and investors separated by the miles between Boston and Lowell.

As early as 1826, Lowell’s utopia began to give way to competitive pressures. England, which bought much of America’s raw cotton, continued to turn it into cotton cloth at a ferocious pace. In response, the U.S. mills tried to increase productivity by speeding up production and productivity. A woman who had once tended one loom soon found herself tending four.

In 1834, the Lowell Mill’s directors tried another tack — cutting fixed labor costs. When management announced that the women would have their wages cut, the Lowell Mill girls, as they were called, went on strike, or in the language of the day, they “turned out.” After only a few days, the strike collapsed and their attempt to forestall the wage cut failed.

Two years later, management decided it had to cut costs again, though not its own, and again it targeted its women operatives. Pay was to be cut by $1 a week, and simultaneously, the amount the girls paid the company for their rooms in the boardinghouses was to increase. At the time, they were sleeping two to a bed and eight to a room. This time, over a thousand women turned out, striking for several weeks.

Throughout, the women’s efforts to improve their working conditions were undermined by the willingness of later immigrants, first Irish, then Italian, to take whatever wages were offered. Ultimately a six-year depression that began in 1837, brought on by overly easy bank credit and rampant real estate speculation, ended any attempt at labor organization. Jobs disappeared by the thousands, and what little power the fledgling labor movement had evaporated.

Of course, if savings on labor costs created intolerable conditions for mill workers, the demand for cheap cotton had bred an even more ghastly system. The raw material used in the mills came from the South, and was grown and picked by slaves. Two-thirds of the Southern cotton was sold to England. The other third was shipped north to New England. Many workers sympathized with the plight of slaves and supported abolitionism, but also suffered themselves when the Civil War broke out. Realizing that they would make more selling raw cotton than by making cloth, Lowell’s mill owners closed their mills and sold off the contents of their warehouses.

Many of the mills reopened after the war, but eventually most moved to the South themselves. Although most attribute this development to the lure of cheaper labor and proximity to raw materials, another factor played a part. As the management hierarchy of the mills suggests, investors focused on finance and labor. Responsibility for technology — specifically, the machines that spun, wove, and finished the cloth — was relegated to an outside superintendent. As Steven Lubar reports in “Managerial Structure and Technological Style: the Lowell Mills, 1821-1880,” shareholders challenged the need for skilled (and therefore costly) managers for these machines. Neither the management system nor the accounting systems (this was before the day of useful cost accounting) fostered an appreciation for the role technology played in operations. As a result, the Lowell mills were slow to repair and slower to invent more efficient machinery. In the end, operators found it simpler to start over in a new location than to repair old machinery.

Today, of course, even the southern mills are closed, with almost all textiles made overseas. But you can still visit the remarkable cotton mills of New England. They’re museums.

Finance in History: Blood and Treasurers

Those who guard the crown jewels need good internal controls.

Roget’s Thesaurus has made a bizarre word familiar to many college students who have found themselves at a loss for words. Compiled by Dr. Peter Mark Roget and published in 1852, Roget’s Thesaurus is a vast categorization of English words — and their friends, siblings, and relatives.

But how did he come up with a word like “thesaurus?” Simple. It’s the Latin word for “treasure.” Back in the 15th century in Scotland, treasurers were called “thesaurers,” and the royal thesaurer had the plum job of guarding the royal treasure trove.

To become thesaurer, a fellow clearly had to be known for his honesty, strength, courage, martial experience, suspicious mind, and self-restraint. One wonders how often the inventory of the royal thesaury (treasury) was conducted and whether the King and Queen were there to congratulate themselves on their fine thesaurus.

Besides the psychological comfort of knowing you have a pile of jewels in a vault nearby — and a trusted thesaurer to make sure they don’t wander off — the king’s jewels must have helped convince lenders of his creditworthiness. A bit like Fort Knox when the United States was on the gold standard.

The flaw in that idea, though, is that crown jewels are anything but a liquid asset. They represent, instead, the classic buy-and-hold strategy. The British gem collection is a 900-year long position in precious stones and metals.

Despite the manifold and elaborate precautions taken by the thesaurer, an audacious brigand almost got away with stealing Britain’s crown jewels in 1671. The perpetrator was an Irishman with the improbable name of Colonel Blood, and he did it by preying upon the Assistant Keeper of the Jewels, an elderly dupe named Talbot Edwards. Revenge certainly played a part in the bloody plot, seeing that the British had taken Blood’s land in Ireland.

Disguising himself as a humble man of the cloth, a parson, Blood made several preliminary visits to the Tower of London, intent on insinuating himself into the good graces of the assistant jewel keeper. Like so many visitors to London who were soon to follow, he took the Tower tour to give the crown jewels a good once-over. The jewels first went on display in the 1600s, and even back then the jewel keeper was allowed to make some money on the side acting as tour guide.

After several increasingly chummy visits, Blood went so far as to propose that his nephew marry Edwards’s daughter, a nice match considering he claimed the nephew was worth 300 pounds a year. The assistant jewel keeper and his wife thought this sounded like a bit of all right.

A few days later, Blood brought his “nephew” (actually his son), to meet Edwards, and they were accompanied by two of their friends. While supposedly waiting for Blood’s wife to join them, Blood persuaded the jewel keeper to show him, his nephew, and their two companions the jewels one more time.

Once Edwards unlocked the vault, they decided the time was especially opportune to bash him in the head with a mallet and stab him to death. Scooping up the jewels, Blood crushed the king’s crown, the better to hide it under his frock. Before they could make their pious exit, however, Edwards’s son stumbled in on them and raised a hue and cry. The plunderers were apprehended, probably by a cohort of the Tower guards, the Beefeaters. The lucky king reclaimed his jewels and dented crown.

Besides housing the crown jewels, the Tower of London was the home of many famous prisoners. Some, including Richard III’s two nephews, Anne Boleyn, Lady Jane Grey, Sir Thomas More, and Guy Fawkes, never left. Queen Elizabeth I, Sir Walter Raleigh, and Rudolph Hess, on the other hand, were only temporary residents.

Weirdly enough, Colonel Blood never joined their ranks. King Charles II met with him after his disastrously botched heist, gave him back his confiscated Irish estates, and is thought to have taken him into his service as a spy. The moral of the tale, apparently, is that the bold entrepreneur often ends up a whole lot better than the treasurer.

Finance in History: Bankruptcy

Chapter 11 may be tough, but it beats death, dismemberment, slavery, exile, prison, and other insolvency solutions.

“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen six, result happiness. Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.” (Charles Dickens, David Copperfield)

Misery indeed. Bankruptcy is no picnic even today, but through the ages it has been the source of much literal pain. The word “bankruptcy” comes from an Italian practice of the Middle Ages — “banca rotta” — which means “bench-breaking.” The term describes the punishment administered to businesses that failed: local fiscal authorities came to the market and smashed the bankrupt business’s table.

Through the ages, people or businesses have gone bankrupt in two ways, either running out of money and thus being unable to repay debts, or being forced to close as a result of fiscal mismanagement. Either way, bankruptcy has often carried a punitive dimension.

Death, dismemberment, slavery (for the debtor and family members), indentured servitude, exile, and debtors’ prison have all been used as punishment. Dickens did not use the word “misery” lightly.

And yet the first known effort to regulate bankruptcy was surprisingly modern in its approach. Appearing in the Code of Hammurabi, which dates to Babylon around the 18th century B.C., the law stipulated that a bankrupt’s possessions were to be divided among creditors in proportion to the amount of money each was owed.

Alas, those would soon come to be seen as the good old days, because by 621 B.C., when Draco ruled Athens, the punishment meted out to “deadbeats” (literally, one who is “completely exhausted”) was death. Or they and their families might be sold into slavery, with the proceeds going to creditors. If that strikes you as Draconian, well, consider the source.

A generation later the Athenian statesman and poet Solon decided this was perhaps a bit too severe. Under his legal reforms the bankrupt and his family had to give up their citizenship but not their freedom — or their lives.

The Romans, however, soon turned back the sundial. Under the Twelve Tables of Rome, promulgated in 451 B.C., maiming became the appropriate sanction. Instead of getting his money back, the creditor was given a pound of flesh — or perhaps more, depending on how much was owed. Debtors were cut up and their parts distributed among creditors on a pro rata basis. (The Roman writer Petronius would later satirize this practice in The Satyricon, a portion of which describes a plutocrat whose will decrees that any friend, parasite, or hanger-on who wants to collect his inheritance must eat a piece of the dead man’s corpse.)

Fast-forward to Renaissance England, where Henry III established the practice of imprisoning debtors in the 13th century. By the time of Henry VIII, in the mid-16th century, the first bankruptcy statute (as opposed to insolvency law) was enacted. It applied only to merchants and traders, since they were considered the only people who had a legitimate reason to borrow money, and provided a way for their debts to be addressed (sans death, torture, or even prison) in the event that a storm at sea sank their boats and thus their fortunes, or similar circumstances beyond their control led to bankruptcy.

That statute did not get the common man off the hook, however. And once someone landed in debtors’ prison it was often nearly impossible to get out. Family or friends might come forward to pay the prisoner’s debts; if not, debtors had to rot, presumably coming to appreciate, as they did, the error of their ways.

The absurdity of debtor’s prison, of course, is that a bankrupt’s ability to repay his creditor from prison is precisely nil. That may be why, in some countries, creditors were required to pay the costs of incarcerating their debtors. The open-ended prison sentence could be cut short, therefore, should the creditor tire of throwing good money after bad.

If you were lucky you might end up a “peon,” a term that originally described a bankrupt person condemned to work without pay for a creditor until the debt was paid off.

While bankruptcy was generally a bigger problem for the debtor than for the creditor, that wasn’t true in every case. In the 14th century, Italian bankers unhappily discovered that England’s Edward III was an unreliable credit risk, but couldn’t do much about it. And in the 18th century, English goldsmiths, the principal bankers of the era, slid into bankruptcy after the Stuart kings found it inconvenient to pay back their loans. Worse, if the bankers were deemed to be charging too much interest their fingers would be burned.

Today bankruptcy still entails pain, if only in the form of many, many meetings with lawyers. And Dickens’s lesson still rings true: having slightly more than you need is infinitely better than having even slightly less. Unless, of course, your credit card offers rewards points and a low introductory rate.

Still to Cont……………………………………………………………………

Always Yours— as Usual———–Saurabh Singh


Modeling Contract Risks — Provided for Students’ Interested in Retail & Supply Chain

SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT – MODELING CONTRACT RISK

Contract risks exist in nearly all economic sectors; however, some contracting and procurement organizations do not generate plans or perform rigorous evaluations on their suppliers to minimize this risk. One of the main goals in managing contracts is to avoid interruptions in the services performed by suppliers. To meet this goal, supply management professionals must evaluate each supplier that may have a contracting agreement with their organization.

From a technical point of view, there are several elements — certifications, tangible evidence, site visits and the like — that help supply management professionals minimize a potential breach of contract. This is not the case when we look at the financial side.

While many organizations include bidder’s financial statements and financial ratio evaluations as part of the technical qualification in a sourcing process, there is no standard methodology to quantify or evaluate the bankruptcy or insolvency risk of those bidders. Also, depending on the length of the contract, the financial stability of suppliers may have changed over time. Discriminant analysis may be the answer for those looking for a solution to this problem.

DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS — WHAT IS IT?

Discriminant analysis is the most common statistical method used to predict bankruptcy risk. It is a statistical model used to classify an element into two or more predefined groups. For this article, the predefined groups are those with high risk of insolvency and groups with minimal risk of insolvency. This method is used primarily in analyses where the dependent variable is presented in a qualitative form. To have a consistent outcome, the model needs to be applied on a sector-by-sector basis to achieve an apples-to-apples comparison.

BUILDING THE MODEL

Building a discriminant analysis model is a five-step process involving: 1) identifying the data, 2) preparing the data, 3) generating the function, 4) understanding the results and 5) choosing the predictive value. To illustrate the steps, consider a contracting company that expects to initiate a variety of sourcing processes related to trucking services. The company needs a tool to qualify the financial situation and indicate the likelihood of bankruptcy for each supplier it will eventually invite to participate. The outcome will be referred to as a dependent variable (referred to as “S”). The company also wants to calculate this likelihood based on specific financial ratios for each supplier — these ratios then become the independent variables.

STEP 1: INFORMATION REQUIRED FOR THE ANALYSIS. To build the model, the company needs two main pieces of information:

  • Two groups of companies: one group that actually went into bankruptcy and another group that didn’t during a specific period of time for the same sector being analyzed (in this example, trucking services). This is a key requirement. Without it, the formula cannot be built.
  • Financial statements for the past two to five years for the suppliers identified in the previous point. You can gather this information from public sources if the companies are publicly traded, or request the information from the suppliers. For example, if the supplier is privately held, you may need to request specific data; or, if the supplier is publicly traded, you can gather the information by examining the supplier’s filings with the government and other sources of publicly available information.

STEP 2: PREPARE THE DATA FOR ANALYSIS. The next step is to perform calculations using selected financial ratios, which allows us to generate the model, as shown in Figure 1 below. The number and type of financial ratios may vary by sector, but the common rule is to include as many as possible. In our example, we identified 10 financial ratios (see the sidebar on the right for their definitions) and separated the suppliers into two groups of three companies each. Then, we used the past financial statements, gathered in the previous step, to calculate each of the financial ratios for each supplier in the two groups.

STEP 3: GENERATE THE DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION. Once the financial ratio calculations are complete, a discriminant analysis can be conducted using statistical software currently available on the market (for instance, SPSS, SAS or Statistics). The software will create a formula (the discriminant function) that separates each potential supplier in both groups based on the independent variables (in this case, the financial ratios). If successful, the software identifies the discriminant function as well as a series of coefficients that measure how well the function discriminates or categorizes the groups.

STEP 4: UNDERSTAND THE RESULTS. After entering the data into the software, the program provides a variety of information, including:

  • Discriminant function. This formula separates a concept (in this case, suppliers) and classifies them into groups. The function reveals coefficients (in this case, the financial ratios) and a constant (an unchanged value).
  • Wilk’s lambda test statistic. This statistic shows how separated the groups are on a scale from 0 to 1. If the value is closer to 1, it will indicate low discrimination. On the other hand, if the value is closer to 0, there is a high difference between the groups. The implication of a low discrimination is that the groups cannot be easily compared and contrasted. Thus, a different financial analysis tool should be used.
  • Group centroids. Centroids represent the average value of the scores for a specific group. If centroids are quite different, then the groups have a high discriminatory power and vice versa. Again, a low discriminatory power reduces the comparison effectiveness of the discriminant analysis.

Going back to our example, the contracting company used the information on the table in Figure 1 and entered the data into a statistical software application. The software provided the discriminant: S = (2.15 x S3) – (0.12 x S6) + (1.20 x S7) + (114.5 x S8) – 0.14.

Financial Ratios

Within the discriminant function, the dependent variable S equals the score for the “n” supplier. The software identified coefficients including 2.15, 0.12, 1.20 and 114.5. And the software identified the independent variables to be used in the discriminant function as S3 (acid test ratio), S6 (working capital turnover), S7 (operating cycle) and S8 (debt ratio). From the 10 ratios analyzed, the software determined that only these four ratios were needed to

Discriminant Analysis Model

identify in which group the specific supplier is classified (high risk of insolvency or minimal risk of insolvency). In addition to the financial ratios, the function includes a parameter — the constant, which equals 0.14. However, it is the coefficients that weigh the importance of each ratio.

Our example also indicates a Wilks’ lambda test statistic (∧) that equals 0.002. Because the number is much closer to 0, this means there’s a large difference between the suppliers classified as solvent and insolvent.

The group centroids identified in our example were calculated as 37.24 for the onbankruptcy group and 1.55 for the Bankruptcy group. The difference in values between the two groups means they are highly discriminatory (there’s a large difference between the numbers to gain a clear comparison between the two groups). These two numbers are also critical in the next step when choosing a predictive value.

If the formula/function has a low discrimination power (for example, a Wilk’s lambda test statistic that is close to 1 or centroids that are close in range to one another), then it won’t work correctly, and it couldn’t be used to separate the suppliers into the groups. In some cases, this may occur and, in such cases, the discriminant analysis is not the appropriate tool.

STEP 5: CHOOSE THE PREDICTIVE VALUE. If the software provides the expected results — meaning it provides a function that can efficiently differentiate your predefined groups — the next and final step is calculating the predictive value. This value is used to compare the different scores the discriminant function provides for each of the suppliers under analysis. Depending on where the specific score falls, that particular supplier will be classified into one of the two groups.

Identify this predictive value by calculating an equidistant point between the centroids: Nonbankruptcy centroid (37.24) + Bankruptcy centroid (1.55) ÷ 2 = 19.39. Therefore, if the score S for a supplier is below 19.39, this supplier will be classified within the Bankruptcy risk group. On the other hand, scores above the predictive value are categorized within the Nonbankruptcy group. The function and the predictive value are valid only for the trucking services market and should be updated with new historical data periodically to guarantee accuracy in the categorization.

APPLICATIONS

The supply management professional or category manager may use this valuable information in a pre- or post-award contract phase.

Pre-award phase. From a pre-award contract perspective, supply management professionals can use the bidder scores as part of the evaluation analysis in a sourcing process (that is, assign weights depending on the value each bidder obtained). In our example, the contracting company that built the model is now in the middle of a tender process for trucking services in the southern region. As part of a qualification process, “financially healthy” was included as a factor in the evaluation matrix, and scores need to be assigned to four suppliers. In our example, a scale of 50 (scores below 19.39) and 100 (scores above 19.39) representing poor and high financial health was used. Financial statements were requested from each one of these suppliers as part of the tender package.

Financial ratios S3 (acid test ratio), S6 (working capital turnover), S7 (operating cycle) and S8 (debt ratio) were calculated based on the financial statements and introduced in the function: S = (2.15 x S3) – (0.12 x S6) + (1.20 x S7) + (114.5 x S8) – 0.14.

Pre Award Phase

Results are shown in Figure 2 above.

Consequently, bidders A and C received scores below the predictive value of 19.39 and were considered suppliers with a high risk of bankruptcy. Therefore, they are given 50 points in the qualification matrix. On the other side, bidders B and D are awarded with 100 points due to their financial health (their S scores are above the predictive value of 19.39).

Post-award phase. In a post-award contract situation, the same philosophy can be used as a monitoring system for current suppliers with contracts in place. This helps the contracting organization anticipate risk situations with a particular supplier and take preventive actions to avoid or minimize a potential service disruption. In the example in Figure 3, below, the same contracting company decided to award the trucking services contract in the southern region to supplier D. Two years have passed since the award, and the supply management organization has been recalculating the S score for this supplier on a year-by-year basis using updated data for each year to monitor its financial stability.

Post Award Phase

The downward trend in the supplier’s S score, as noted in Figure 3, illustrates that something occurred with this supplier since signing the contract two years prior. This clearly indicates that there is a high risk of bankruptcy that might affect the contracting organization. Supply management professionals can use this information to mitigate risk by trying to understand the current situation of supplier D and help them get back to the right path, or identifying a backup supplier in the event supplier D is not able to deliver the services requested in the future.

Supplier insolvency or bankruptcy risks remain prevalent in the current business environment. No matter how it is used, discriminant analysis is a tool that provides consistent and accurate information on an organization’s financial health at any point in the procurement process, providing supply management professionals with an additional and statistically correct option to evaluate or monitor their suppliers. Furthermore, the tool will improve the overall understanding of an organizational supplier base from a financial point of view, making the sourcing decisions more robust.

Going forward, the same analysis may be applied to other areas of the supply management function where predictive modeling for categorization is needed. A good example is on-time delivery suppliers versus suppliers with recurrent delivery delays. If we could generate a mathematical function that allows us to identify if a supplier will deliver on time, we could use this logic as a sourcing award decision based on the required on-site date for a specific material — thus optimizing the procurement process and guaranteeing material availability. There are many areas waiting to be analyzed. The possibilities are endless, and the tool is already here.

Always Yours——–As Usual—— Saurabh Singh

Source: August 2010, Inside Supply Management® Vol. 21, No. 8

The Extended Marketing Mix Model

The Extended Marketing Mix Model —  Boom & Bitner’s Additional Three Ps of Marketing Mix

The marketing mix is the combination of marketing activities that an organization engages in so as to best meet the needs of its targeted market. Traditionally the marketing mix consisted of just 4 Ps.


For example, motor vehicle manufacturers like Audi:

  • Produces products that are of the highest quality and fit for the needs of different groups of consumers,
  • Offers a range of cars at value for money prices, depending on the market segmented they are targeted at,
  • Sells the cars through appropriate outlets such as dealerships and showrooms in prime locations, i.e. in the right places, and
  • Supports the marketing of the products through appropriate promotional and advertising activity.

The marketing mix  [McCarthy’s Marketing Mix Model called 4 Ps of Marketing] thus consists of four main elements:

1. Product

2. Price

3. Place

4. Promotion.

Getting the mix of these elements right enables the organisation to meet its marketing objectives and to satisfy the requirements of customers.


In addition to the traditional four Ps it is now customary to add some more Ps to the mix to give us Seven Ps.

The additional Ps have been added because today marketing is far more customer oriented than ever before, and because the service sector of the economy has come to dominate economic activity in this country.

These 3 extra Ps are particularly relevant to this new extended service mix.

THE THREE EXTRA Ps ARE:

1. Physical layout

These days when manufacturing dominated the UK economy the physical layout of production units such as factories was not very important to the end consumer because they never went inside the factory. However, today consumers typically come into contact with products in retail units – and they expect a high level of presentation in modern shops – e.g. record stores, clothes shops etc. Not only do they need to easily find their way around the store, but they also often expect a good standard or presentation.


The importance of quality physical layout is important in a range of service providers, including:

  • Students going to college or university have far higher expectations about the quality of their accommodation and learning environment than in the past. As a result colleges and universities pay far more attention to creating attractive learning environments, student accommodation, shops, bars and other facilities.
  • Air passengers expect attractive and stimulating environments, such as interesting departure lounges, with activities for young children etc.
  • Hair dressing salons are expected to provide pleasant waiting areas, with attractive reading materials, access to coffee for customers, etc.
  • Physical layout is not only relevant to stores, which we visit, but also to the layout and structure of virtual stores, and websites.

2. Provision of customer service

Customer service lies at the heart of modern service industries. Customers are likely to be loyal to organizations that serve them well – from the  way in which a telephone query is handled, to direct face-to-face interactions. Although the ‘have a nice day’ approach is a bit corny, it is certainly better than a couldn’t care less approach to customer relations. Call centre staff and customer interfacing personnel are the front line troops of any organisation and therefore need to be thoroughly familiar with good customer relation’s practice.

3. Processes

Associated with customer service are a number of processes involved in making marketing effective in an  organization e.g. processes for handling customer complaints, processes for identifying customer needs and requirements, processes for handling order etc

The 7 Ps – price, product, place, promotion, physical presence, provision of service, and processes comprise the modern marketing mix that is particularly relevant in service industry, but is also relevant to any form of business where meeting the needs of customers is given priority.

Always Yours—–as Usual——Saurabh Singh